Cem Sürmen

In this episode we sit down with Cem Sürmen — a long-time finance and strategic-planning leader — for a deep dive into whether globalization really is heading toward an end. Cem prefers to call the shift not abandonment of globalization but “re-localization”.

Two major historical pivot points anchor the conversation. After World War II borders were drawn in heavier lines, the Western and Eastern blocs formed, and countries turned inward. With the collapse of the Soviet bloc in the 1990s the trend reversed: developed economies discovered the cheap labour and raw materials of less-developed economies, generating major productivity gains.

The data tracks the size of the wave. The ratio of world trade volume to total world income climbed from levels around the 1960s base up through 2007 in a sustained rise. The same period also saw a sharp critique that developed economies were exploiting cheap labour in less-developed economies — a critique that put the “new colonialism” label on globalization.

Today the picture is shifting. The IMF labelled the current process “Bretton Woods II” in a recent report, and analysts noted it as a continuation of the 1990s wave. But Cem highlights the more critical pattern: the localization trend is starting from developed economies — Brexit, US trade policy actively closing trade-deficit gaps, and similar moves are pulling the system toward fragmentation.

For CFOs the implication is clear: supply-chain decisions, production-base choices, long-cycle investment strategy and even currency-risk management can no longer be designed only on an efficiency basis — they have to be rebuilt for a world in which globalization is changing form rather than disappearing. Cem’s framing offers a practical lens for both strategic decision tables and operational finance leadership.